OPS has come to the terms in the AIADMK that only EPS can be the chief ministerial face for next year’s assembly election. This has come as a compromise with the expected early release of VK Sasikala from prison playing a role in the background.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has survived another scare. Ending speculation of a delay, the AIADMK announced incumbent Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (popularly known as EPS) as its chief ministerial candidate today. The announcement was made by Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (or, OPS as he is known), who had been jostling with EPS for supremacy in the party.
There were enough indications that EPS had an upper hand in the internal fight with OPS. Now, he appears to prefer presenting a unified face to the public going into the assembly election.
The AIADMK has been in a state of flux since the passing away of J Jayalalithaa in December 2016. That Jayalalithaa won a resounding majority in the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly election that saw the party sailing through turbulent times. Tamil Nadu is heading to an election scheduled for April-May next year. It is time for the AIADMK to come out of instability in order to put up a challenge to a rejuvenated DMK led by MK Stalin.
Both sides have had intense deliberations on what should be the nature and shape of that unified face of the AIADMK before reaching a consensus. On evidence, OPS has finally accepted that he is not in a position to challenge the chief ministerial claim of EPS, who has secured overwhelming support within the party.
A LEGACY PROBLEM
The fight between EPS and OPS began soon after the death of Jayalalithaa. Having been handpicked by Jayalalithaa on previous occasions for the chief ministerial post, OPS was chosen as the immediate - to many only a stop-gap - successor of Jayalalithaa in December 2016.
OPS was then in line with Jayalalithaa's powerful aide VK Sasikala, who was elected as the general secretary of the party. Sasikala was thought to be the natural successor of Jayalalithaa. OPS revolted against her but had to resign after the AIADMK legislature party elected her as the chief minister-designate in February 2017. OPS's resignation had another link. His name had cropped up in a diary seized during the Income Tax raid on mining baron Sekar Reddy in post-demonetisation days.
Within the AIADMK, Sasikala could not fight back as her chief ministerial bid was cut short by the Supreme Court which upheld her conviction a week later in a disproportionate assets case under the Prevention of Corruption Act. She was handed over a four-year jail term by a lower court.
With Sasikala's blessings, EPS was chosen as the chief ministerial nominee by the AIADMK. He took oath later that month. OPS had around a dozen MLAs in his faction, all of whom were on the margins for six months.
In August 2017, OPS and EPS reached a compromise. The OPS faction was merged with the EPS faction. Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran were expelled from the AIADMK.
The BJP is said to have played a role in getting the two factions to patch up. EPS got a secured chief ministerial chair, and OPS was rewarded with a deputy CM's post in return. Over the last three years, EPS has consolidated his position in the AIAMDK and the government. The result is that OPS, who had over a dozen MLAs in his camp, is now left with less than half-a-dozen supporters in the party, and practically none in the EPS cabinet.
RETURN OF SASIKALA
This situation now gets complicated with the impending release of Sasikala from prison in Bengaluru. Her prison term ends in February 2021. But the rule book allows the release of a prisoner up to five months early on the grounds of good behaviour. Speculation is rife that Sasikala may be released any time. This gains currency from a letter that Sasikala has written to the jail authorities requesting them not to share her release date even under the RTI application.
Sasikala's release is causing discomfort to both EPS and OPS camps. OPS had revolted against her. EPS deserted her after taking oath as Tamil Nadu chief minister. Her nephew Dhinakaran tried to raise a banner of revolt floating a separate political outfit and winning the RK Nagar bypoll. The constituency was earlier represented by Jayalalithaa. But he failed to make an impression in the Lok Sabha election last year, and had been muted since then. Many believe he is waiting for the release of Sasikala.
There is another narrative going around that EPS's apparent desertion of Sasikala was part of the strategy to keep the AIADMK intact. It was, as some believe, a move to prevent a split in the party given the pressure exerted by OPS. With the release of Sasikala just months away from the assembly election, EPS may welcome her back into the fold pushing OPS to the margins once again. The truce reached between EPS and OPS may be a move by the deputy CM to keep his chances alive in the AIADMK when Sasikala returns.
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